The dollar exchange rate in the second half of 2022 may exceed 80 rubles. Oleg Syrovatkin, Leading Analyst of the Otkritie Investments Global Research Department, made this forecast in an interview with the Prime agency.
As the expert explained, the strengthening of the ruble exchange rate, which has been observed recently, supports the obligations of exporters to sell part of their foreign exchange earnings. However, according to him, a policy of gradual easing of foreign exchange controls is already being carried out. As a result, along with the growth of imports, the Russian currency will begin to weaken.
“All these events can seriously change the market balance of currency supply and demand in the second half of the year and shift the “fair” dollar rate to the ruble above 80,” Syrovatkin explained.
The day before, on May 27, Olga Veretennikova, vice-president of the Borsell analytical company, told Izvestia that the exchange rate would fix in the region of 65-70 rubles per dollar, unless force majeure happens, for example, the EU countries agree on an embargo on Russian oil.
On the same day, during trading on the Moscow Exchange, the dollar exchange rate rose above 67 rubles for the first time since May 12. The euro added 3.07 rubles and rose to 71.08 rubles. On the eve of the European currency jumped to 67 rubles. The value of the dollar rose to 64.28 rubles.
On May 19, Russian presidential aide Maxim Oreshkin said that the current ruble exchange rate is absolutely market-based. According to him, the Russian national currency is strengthening due to a strong balance of payments due to high prices for exported oil.