As it turns out, concerns about the ability of partners to have time to launch the next-generation iPhone by the fall do not prevent Apple from being moderately optimistic about forecasts for the number of smartphones released this year. The indicator should remain at the level of last year – 220 million units, which, against the backdrop of a general decrease in demand in the market, seems to be a rather self-confident forecast.
Since 2019, Apple has not disclosed the number of smartphones sold, so the company’s current forecasts can only be judged by statistics from third-party sources. Bloomberg explained that Apple’s own estimate looks even more adequate than the calculations of third-party experts, many of whom mentioned the company’s ability to sell up to 240 million smartphones by the end of the year.
From official comments, only Apple’s statement is known about the ability of revenue to decrease by $4 or $8 million in the second quarter due to interruptions in the work of Chinese enterprises, where the main part of the brand’s products is assembled. Industry analysts have already expressed the opinion that a decline in demand for smartphones this year is inevitable due to geopolitical upheavals and accelerating inflation affecting consumer behavior in many regions of the world. Strategy Analytics believes that shipments of smartphones will fall by 2% this year. In the first quarter, they have already fallen by 11%, showing the worst result since the start of the pandemic. The third-largest smartphone maker, Xiaomi, posted a decline in revenue in the first quarter for the first time in its history.
According to sources interviewed by Bloomberg, Apple attributes its relative optimism this year to a loyal user base, as well as a decrease in competition due to a significant weakening of the market position of Huawei Technologies. Finally, in the fall, interest in Apple products will spur the debut of new iPhone models, which should offer more innovations than the iPhone 13 series at one time.
In general, the drop in demand for smartphones in the second quarter will allow Apple and its partners to better prepare for the release of new products in the fall. Manufacturers now have the opportunity to address weaknesses in the ecosystem in order to meet the potential increase in demand already fully armed. Representatives of Strategy Analytics hope that in the second half of the year the situation in the smartphone market will begin to improve.