The Russians are creating an information field for a false flag attack on the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station in order to justify or cover up their retreat in the Kherson region.
Source: American Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
Details: The Russian military leadership has apparently learned from previous failures in the Kharkiv region and is trying to mitigate the consequences of failing to defend against yet another successful Ukrainian offensive.
Now the Russian authorities are probably creating information conditions to justify the Russian retreat and significant territorial losses in the Kherson region. The commander of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine, Sergei Surovikin, announced “difficult decisions” in the Kherson region and accused Ukraine of planning attacks on the infrastructure of the Kherson region. Kherson collaborator Volodymyr Saldo announced an “evacuation” in anticipation of a Ukrainian offensive.
The Russian military may believe that a dam breach will cover their retreat from the right bank of the Dnieper and halt or delay the Ukrainian advance. Surovikin said he had received information that Kyiv intended to strike at the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, which, he said, would cause devastating flooding in the Kherson region. Saldo echoed that statement and warned that Ukrainian forces intended to strike upstream of Kherson.
ISW writes that the Kremlin could use such an attack to obscure news of its third humiliating withdrawal. Also, such an attack would contribute to Russian propaganda, which is trying to portray Ukraine as a terrorist state.